It will not be an overstatement to refer to Artificial Intelligence as the most disruptive technology of our generation. One of the greatest worries accompanying AI’s development is the potential tremors it is going to cause in the labour market. However, this is not the first automation disruption humanity has faced.
“The huge demon of Mechanism smokes and thunders, panting as his great task, in all sections of English land; changing his shape like a very Proteus; and infallibly, at every change of shape, oversetting whole multitudes of workmen, as if with the waving of his shadow from afar, hurling them asunder, this way and that, in their crowded march and course of work or traffic; so that the wisest no longer knows his whereabouts.” - Thomas Carlyle, 1839 A.D.
Famously known as the automation scare, its traces can be found as far as back as the 18th century & throughout the industrial revolution. There were objections to machines for the fear of them replacing humans and damaging the interests of the labour classes. The above is an extract from the works of the famous historian Thomas Carlyle, who poetically put across the sentiments of the labour class of that period (Carlyle, 2010). These sentiments even led to the birth of a social movement, by the name of the Luddites. They were primarily based of textile workers who protested the upcoming automation, as they were under the impression that their livelihood will be threatened.
The Luddites even went as far as planning and demonstrating machine breaking as a sign of resistance. The English government in response, made the act of machine breaking a capital offence. While the Luddites movement eventually fizzled out, there were flashes of resistance even in the 20th century (Andrews, 2015). Another famous example is John F. Kennedy’s speech in the 1960’s, which described automation as “the dark menace of industrial dislocation, increasing unemployment, and deepening poverty” (Jfklibrary.org).
However, public perception of an event and the reality of it often differ greatly. While the industrial revolution did cause job losses in the short term, it also led to an explosive growth of job opportunities in the long term. For example, in the early 1800’s, steam engines were introduced in the manufacturing industry. There were roughly 1.2 million workers, and there was a lot of tension surrounding employment. Contrary to the public’s expectations, jobs increased, and by 1910, there were around 8.3 million workers (Lebergott, 1966).
The general argument surrounding any technological disruption is that the labour class will always find employment, “albeit after a long period of painful adjustment” (Vardi, 2017). However, due to AI’s terrifying growth and potential, things might be different this time around. Most recently, Oxford Economics predicted that by the time 2030 comes around, roughly 20 million manufacturing jobs would be lost to automation (Economic Outlook, 2019). In 2015, Bank of America also estimated that approximately $9 trillion in employment costs will be eliminated by AI by 2025 (Bank of America, 2015). While there are pessimists, there are optimists too. The McKinsey Global Institute tried to forecast the dangers of work automation via two sets of analyses, and they concluded that if there is sufficient innovation & economic growth, the loss of employment caused by automation could be balanced out by new job creation. They further predicted that, based on historical records, 8-9 % of the labour class in 2030 will be engaged in occupations which did not exist before (Manyika et al, 2017). Another report also suggested that only less that 5% of the current work opportunities will be completely erased by the end of the next decade (Chui et al, 2016).
Keeping long term effects and conflicting studies aside, almost every economist agrees on the fact that there will be many short-term effects (Butler, 2020). This does not mean that we are helpless against it. After all, forewarned is forearmed.
Effective public policy must be deployed to counter and offset the upcoming automation wave. A key legislative example of the same was U.S.A’s Manpower Development and Training Act, 1962. The Act aimed to train and retrain all the employees who where effected by the automation wave in the 1960’s. Something similar was also seen in 2016, when U.S.A.’s President Executive Office launched a three-pronged policy outline which aimed to deal with the upcoming disruption. It mandated investing in AI, preparing Americans for new future jobs by training them and ensuring smooth transition of workers for equal spread of benefits (Abott, 2020).
Policy makers must ensure to put the labour class at the centre of the upcoming artificial intelligence storm. An integrated strategy, keeping both AI and workers must be drafted and implemented (Reese, 2015). Not only governments, but companies too must involve themselves in preparing their workers. Research shows that companies which create work models which allow for simultaneous design process, compared to the traditional sequential strategy will lead to better results for both the workers and the company (Dyer, 2017).
To conclude, there are many possibilities on how the automation wave is going to affect the labour class. The only surety is that there are going to be some tremendous changes around the world, and the best way to deal with them is to prepare well for them and to arm our workers with the appropriate knowledge & skills. Solving the problems of the short term will automatically lead us to resolve the long term issues too. However, as of now, AI is more likely to be our doom rather than a boon. Hence, focus must be brought on this issue, and public policy must evolve accordingly. It is only after this will the AI automation be a boon for humanity.
References
Abbott, Ryan. The Reasonable Robot: Artificial Intelligence and the Law. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2020. Print.
Andrews, Evan. “Who Were the Luddites?” HISTORY. N.p., 7 Aug. 2015. Web. 19 Sept. 2021.
Bank of America. Robot Revolution – Global Robot & AI Primer. N.p., 2015. Print.
Butler, Martin, and Bertus Buys. “Will the Fourth Industrial Revolution Lead to Large-Scale Unemployment?” Usb.ac.za. N.p., 18 Dec. 2020. Web. 19 Sept. 2021.
Carlyle, Thomas. The the Works of Thomas Carlyle 30 Volume Set the Works of Thomas Carlyle: Critical and Miscellaneous Essays II Volume 27. Ed. Henry Duff Traill. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2010. Print.
Chui, Michael, James Manyika, and Mehdi Miremadi. “Where Machines Could Replace Humans—and Where They Can’t (Yet).” Mckinsey.com. McKinsey & Company, 7 July 2016. Web. 19 Sept. 2021.
Dyer, Lee, and Thomas Kochan. “Robots Won’t Steal Our Jobs If We Put Workers at Center of AI Revolution.” The Conversation 30 Aug. 2017. Web. 19 Sept. 2021.
“How Robots Change the World.” Economic outlook 43.3 (2019): 5–8. Print.
Lebergott, Stanley. Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1966. Print.
Manyika, James et al. “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: What the Future of Work Will Mean for Jobs, Skills, and Wages.” Mckinsey.com. McKinsey & Company, 27 Nov. 2017. Web. 19 Sept. 2021.
Reese, Hope. “Why Robots Still Need Us: David A. Mindell Debunks Theory of Complete Autonomy.” TechRepublic. N.p., 13 Oct. 2015. Web. 19 Sept. 2021.
“Remarks of Senator John F. Kennedy at the AFL-CIO Convention, Grand Rapids, Michigan, June 7, 1960.” Jfklibrary.org. N.p., n.d. Web. 19 Sept. 2021.
Vardi, Moshe Y. “What the Industrial Revolution Really Tells Us about the Future of Automation and Work.” The Conversation 1 Sept. 2017. Web. 19 Sept. 2021.
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